Long, Z.; Perrie, W.; Gyakum, J.; Laprise, René et Caya, D.
(2009).
« Scenario changes in the climatology of winter midlatitude cyclone activity over eastern North America and the Northwest Atlantic ».
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 114(D12111).
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Résumé
The present study explores how midlatitude winter cyclone activity can be modified under warming-induced conditions due to enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations. We performed simulations with the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM version 3.5) implemented on a domain that covers the Northwest Atlantic and eastern North America. These simulations are driven by control conditions (1975–1994) and high-CO2 scenario conditions (2040–2059) suggested by the Canadian Climate Centre model, CGCM2 (Second Generation Coupled Global Climate Model), following the IPCC IS92a scenario. Comparisons between model simulations for the control period (1975–1994) and North America Regional analysis (NARR) suggest that both CGCM2 and CRCM reliably reproduce the overall NARR patterns of sea level pressure, tropospheric baroclinicity and Atlantic storm tracks. However, compared to CGCM2 results, CRCM offers an improvement in simulations of the most intense cyclones. Although both models underestimate the track density of intense cyclones, the CGCM2 underestimates are larger than those of CRCM. Under the high-CO2 climate change scenario, the CRCM and CGCM2 model simulations show similar changes in sea level pressure, surface temperature, and total track density of midlatitude winter cyclones. Although we can see the northwest shift of the dominant Atlantic storm track, it is not statistically significant. Moreover, simulations from both models show a decrease in the total cyclone track density along the Canadian east coast; the decrease is more robust in CRCM simulations than in CGCM2 results. For intense cyclones, CRCM simulations show a slight decrease in the track density, while no such change is found in CGCM2 simulations.
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