Impact of land cover changes on Long‐Term Regional‐Scale groundwater recharge simulation in cold and humid climates

Dubois, Emmanuel; Larocque, Marie et Brunner, Philip (2023). « Impact of land cover changes on Long‐Term Regional‐Scale groundwater recharge simulation in cold and humid climates ». Hydrological Processes, 37(2), e14810.

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In cold and humid climates, warming temperatures will result in longer growing seasons, leading to land cover changes that could have long-term impacts on groundwater recharge (GWR), in addition to the direct impacts of climate change. The objective of this study was therefore to investigate whether land cover (LC) changes need to be considered when simulating long-term regional-scale potential GWR in cold and humid climates by (1) quantifying how LC changes impact simulated GWR and (2) quantifying the combined impacts of LC and climate changes on the future GWR changes. Using the region of southern Quebec (Canada) as a case study and a water budget model, this work proposes an innovative coupling of land cover change scenarios and specific future climate conditions to simulate spatially distributed transient GWR over the 1951–2100 period. The results showed that including LC changes in long-term GWR simulations produced statistically significant increases in GWR compared to using a constant LC through time (average of +13 mm). Massive afforestation taking place on agricultural lands simulated for one of the scenario chains (RCP4.5) increased GWR by reducing runoff during the snow-dominated period (average − 17 mm). The results also showed that GWR was more sensitive to climate change for scenarios that included intense land cover changes. Additionally, the spatial distribution of the LC changes influenced their simulated impacts on GWR. Considering that the methodology was computationally feasible and entirely transferrable to the new CMIP6 ensemble, LC changes should be considered systematically in long-term groundwater resources simulations.

Type: Article de revue scientifique
Informations complémentaires: © 2023 The Authors. Hydrological Processes published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Mots-clés ou Sujets: Climate change, cold and humid climates, groundwater recharge, Hydrobudget Model, land cover change, regional-scale
Unité d'appartenance: Centres institutionnels > Centre de recherche en géochimie et géodynamique (GEOTOP)
Centres institutionnels > Groupe de recherche interuniversitaire en limnologie et en environnement aquatique (GRIL)
Faculté des sciences > Département des sciences de la Terre et de l'atmosphère
Déposé par: Marie Larocque
Date de dépôt: 16 févr. 2023 09:29
Dernière modification: 16 févr. 2023 09:29
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