Profitability of flood-related relocation with probabilistic cost-benefit analyses

Boudreault, Mathieu; Bourdeau-Brien, Michaël et Milot, Nicolas (2022). Profitability of flood-related relocation with probabilistic cost-benefit analyses. , 54 p.

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Many regions are becoming subject to successive flooding and with climate change taking its toll, it is no surprise that we observe a growing interest for risk avoidance strategies such as relocation. Cost-benefit analysis is the dominant tool used by decision makers to assess flood risk avoidance projects and yet, few guidelines are available about how such an analysis should be implemented. This paper advocates for a probabilistic cost-benefit analysis and details a step-by-step procedure via a real-world example. The results show that relocation can be a cost-effective strategy for many high-risk properties and neighborhoods. The level of indemnities and the inclusion of intangible losses are two key drivers of profitability. Among other things, the analysis contrasts three distinct designs of relocation programs. The results reveal that proactive and innovative schemes, such as managed retreat and usufruct arrangements, constitute worthwhile alternatives to a more conventional post-flood design.

Type: Rapport de recherche
Mots-clés ou Sujets: flood risk management, financial modeling, cost benefit analysis, flood insurance and relocation, flood buyout programs; relocalisation, réinstallation, gestion du risque d'inondation, analyses coûts-bénéfices, assurance inondation;
Unité d'appartenance: Faculté des sciences > Département de mathématiques
Déposé par: Mathieu Boudreault
Date de dépôt: 01 sept. 2022 12:42
Dernière modification: 01 sept. 2022 12:42
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