Ringland, Gill
(2020).
« On the horizon ».
Strategy Magazine(35), pp. 26-29.
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Résumé
We all forecast all the time. Much of life is predictable. In the UK, people do not check if there has been an earthquake in the night before they get out of bed; people who live in an earthquake zone might need to do so. Forecasting of the external operating environment, the market, the competition, stakeholders, and regulation, is also an integral part of any strategy. This forecasting needed by strategists encompasses both predictable factors, and their impact, while being aware of potential changes in the operating environment.
Strategists also need to find methods for communicating to non-strategists about potential sources of disruption and appropriate levels of preparation and/or contingency thinking. The forecasting needed by strategists needs to go beyond the predictable. This article looks at three tools that can help strategists fulfil their challenging role and discusses when to use each.
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